A decade following the UK entered into a hasty referendum that split the nation and caused disorder, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles everybody, or ought to concern everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an highly polarised community where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Absence of Informed Dialogue
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to enlighten and encourage conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there could be good arguments on each side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We seek a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, valid points, he said. "Somebody will win here and the other side will in the end not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the discussion, stated the analyst. "This involves the United Kingdom. It is a British issue as much as it is an Irish question."
